Paetongtarn Survives Her First No-Confidence Vote Amidst Allegations

Parliament has affirmed its confidence in Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, dismissing a no-confidence motion brought by the opposition. The vote, held on 26 March 2025, saw 319 MPs support the government, while 162 voted against. This followed a two-day censure debate, 24-25 March, the first since Ms Shinawatra assumed office in August 2024.

Public opinion polls presented a mixed picture. A Thairath Online poll reported 70.89% of respondents rated the Prime Minister's performance negatively, while a North Bangkok Poll found 42% believed the opposition's claims, and 56% found the government's responses credible. Surveys indicated that only 38.55 percent of the public had confidence in the coalition's ability to address national problems.

The opposition challenged the Prime Minister on several fronts, alleging economic mismanagement, undue influence from her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and impropriety in financial dealings. Specific accusations included:

• Economic Mismanagement: Claims of failing to address low economic growth, rising household debt, declining agricultural prices, and persistent high living costs despite low inflation. The "10,000 baht digital wallet" stimulus package was criticised for failing to deliver promised results.

• Undue Influence: Allegations that Mr Thaksin Shinawatra exerts significant control over government policy, undermining the Prime Minister's independence.

• Tax Avoidance: Accusations of the Prime Minister engaging in tax avoidance through family share transfers.

• Alpine Golf Course Scandal: Renewed scrutiny of the Shinawatra family's involvement in the controversial land acquisition.

• Human Rights Concerns: Criticism of the government's deportation of 40 Uyghurs to China.

• Casino Legalisation: Concerns that the proposed casino legalisation would foster illicit activities.

• Cronyism: Allegations of preferential treatment for business figures with ties to Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, particularly in the energy sector.

Photo Credit: Thai PBS News

Heated Debate Marked by Accusations and Defences

The debate was marked by heated exchanges, with the opposition referencing third parties, leading to protests and calls for retractions. House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha intervened to maintain order. His past association with Mr Thaksin Shinawatra raised questions about his impartiality.

The government countered the allegations, deploying a 20-member team of MPs, dubbed “20 bodyguards”, to defend the Prime Minister. Ten opposition MPs from the Palang Pracharath, Thai Kao Na, and Thai Sang Thai parties broke ranks to support the government, prompting speculation of political deals.

Analysts, including The Standard, viewed the censure debate as a crucial test of leadership for Ms Paetongtarn. Former Prime Minister's Secretary-General Suranand Vejjajiva and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanaporn Sriyakul suggested the opposition highlighted the Prime Minister's shortcomings and perceived lack of understanding on certain issues.

Thailand's economic performance in 2024, with a GDP growth rate of just 2.5%, the lowest among the ASEAN-6 nations, provided substantial grounds for criticism of the government's management . The bearish trend in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), which saw a 15.32% decrease between September 2024 and the end of February, further reflected these economic concerns . This pre-vote assessment indicates that the opposition's strategy might have been more focused on publicly challenging the government's legitimacy and highlighting perceived shortcomings rather than securing an immediate change in leadership.  

Photo Credit: Reuters

Lingering Questions and Future Challenges

People's Party MP Rangsiman Rome made a particularly strong accusation, suggesting the government had orchestrated a "demon deal" to facilitate Mr Thaksin's early release from detention following his return to Thailand in 2023. Other allegations included tax evasion, mishandling of the economy, and a failure to address pressing issues such as air pollution and corruption. Opposition MPs also reportedly questioned Ms Shinawatra's grasp of national issues and accused her of avoiding scrutiny from the press.

Despite the onslaught of criticism, Prime Minister Paetongtarn expressed her gratitude for the support she received. In a social media post, she stated that the votes would serve as motivation for her and her cabinet. However, People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut suggested that many questions raised during the debate remained unanswered, indicating that the opposition would continue its scrutiny.

Photo Credit: TOP NEWS

Political analysts had largely anticipated the outcome of the vote. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted prior to the debate that the opposition likely lacked the numbers to unseat the Prime Minister. He suggested that the opposition's strategy was more geared towards highlighting perceived weaknesses and potentially pushing for an early general election, particularly given the low public approval ratings and economic challenges.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Senior Adviser at BowerGroupAsia, echoed this sentiment, predicting the government's survival while also pointing out that the debate could still damage Ms Shinawatra's public image and underscore Mr Thaksin's influence.

Following the vote, Ken Mathis Lohatepanont observed that the People's Party had strategically targeted the "grand compromise" that enabled Mr Thaksin's return, a move he considered politically astute as it likely alienated both Pheu Thai and conservative voters. He commented, "Bringing the murky circumstances behind Thaksin’s return back into the picture was probably a smart political play for the opposition, as the grand compromise between Thaksin and the conservatives pleased neither the Pheu Thai nor the conservative base."

Analysts also highlighted how Newin Chidchob, a key figure in the Bhumjaithai Party, a crucial coalition partner, had used the lead-up to the vote to exert pressure on the government regarding the extension of Thailand's MotoGP contract. This manoeuvre illustrated the leverage held by coalition members.

The "grand compromise" could potentially lead to shifts in voter allegiance in future elections, possibly alienating traditional conservatives and populist reformists.

The country's economic situation has prompted reflections on Thaksin Shinawatra's time in office, a period of notable growth, as his daughter Paetongtarn now faces the task of steering the nation's economy.

Despite surviving the vote, speculation persists regarding a potential cabinet reshuffle.